PMI Reports
Business surveys that predict economic direction before official data.
Quick Answer
Purchasing Managers' Index surveys measure business conditions in manufacturing and services. Above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction. PMI is forward-looking, making it valuable for predicting GDP and earnings trends.
On This Page
Overview
What It Is
PMI surveys ask purchasing managers if conditions are better, worse, or the same versus last month. The results are converted to an index: 50 = no change, above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction. Services PMI matters more (70% of economy) but manufacturing gets more attention.
Why It Matters
PMI is a leading indicator—it shows where the economy is heading, not where it's been. A falling PMI often precedes economic slowdowns. A rising PMI suggests acceleration ahead.
Timing & Schedule
Typical Time
10:00 AM ET (ISM) / 9:45 AM ET (S&P Global)
Schedule Notes
ISM Manufacturing first business day of month. ISM Services third business day. S&P Global PMI released earlier as 'flash' estimates.
Typical Schedule
Every month
Key Metrics to Watch
Trading Strategies
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Overweighting manufacturing PMI
Why It Happens
How to Avoid
Be aware and plan accordingly
Historical Examples
ISM fell below 50 for 7th straight month, deepening manufacturing recession.
ISM fell below 50 for 7th straight month, deepening manufacturing recession.
Market Reaction:
Preparation Checklist
- Know the consensus and previous readings
- Watch the new orders component (most forward-looking)
- Check prices paid for inflation signals