Medium Impact
EconomicEvery month

PMI Reports

Business surveys that predict economic direction before official data.

Quick Answer

Purchasing Managers' Index surveys measure business conditions in manufacturing and services. Above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction. PMI is forward-looking, making it valuable for predicting GDP and earnings trends.

On This Page

Overview

Purchasing Managers' Index surveys measure business conditions in manufacturing and services. Above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction. PMI is forward-looking, making it valuable for predicting GDP and earnings trends.

What It Is

PMI surveys ask purchasing managers if conditions are better, worse, or the same versus last month. The results are converted to an index: 50 = no change, above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction. Services PMI matters more (70% of economy) but manufacturing gets more attention.

Why It Matters

PMI is a leading indicator—it shows where the economy is heading, not where it's been. A falling PMI often precedes economic slowdowns. A rising PMI suggests acceleration ahead.

Timing & Schedule

Typical Time

10:00 AM ET (ISM) / 9:45 AM ET (S&P Global)

Schedule Notes

ISM Manufacturing first business day of month. ISM Services third business day. S&P Global PMI released earlier as 'flash' estimates.

Typical Schedule

J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D

Every month

Key Metrics to Watch

1
Manufacturing PMI
2
Services PMI
3
New Orders
4
Employment Component
5
Prices Paid

Trading Strategies

Common Mistakes to Avoid

Overweighting manufacturing PMI

Why It Happens

How to Avoid

Be aware and plan accordingly

Historical Examples

Jun 1, 2023

ISM fell below 50 for 7th straight month, deepening manufacturing recession.

ISM fell below 50 for 7th straight month, deepening manufacturing recession.

Market Reaction:

Preparation Checklist

  • Know the consensus and previous readings
  • Watch the new orders component (most forward-looking)
  • Check prices paid for inflation signals