GDP Report
Quarterly measure of economic growth. Two negative quarters = recession.
Quick Answer
Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of goods and services produced in the US. Released quarterly in three estimates (advance, preliminary, final), GDP tells us if the economy is growing or shrinking. While important, markets often react more to the components than the headline.
On This Page
Overview
Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of goods and services produced in the US. Released quarterly in three estimates (advance, preliminary, final), GDP tells us if the economy is growing or shrinking. While important, markets often react more to the components than the headline.
What It Is
GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity. It's the sum of consumer spending, business investment, government spending, and net exports. Growth above 2% is generally considered healthy. Below 0% for two consecutive quarters is the technical definition of recession.
Why It Matters
GDP tells us if the economy is growing or shrinking. However, it's backward-looking—by the time it's released, markets have moved on. The components (especially consumer spending) often matter more than the headline number.
Timing & Schedule
Typical Time
8:30 AM ET
Schedule Notes
Advance estimate ~30 days after quarter end. Second estimate ~60 days. Final ~90 days.
Typical Schedule
Every 3 months
Key Metrics to Watch
Trading Strategies
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Overreacting to GDP
Why It Happens
How to Avoid
Be aware and plan accordingly
Historical Examples
Second consecutive negative quarter technically signaled recession.
Second consecutive negative quarter technically signaled recession.
Market Reaction:
Preparation Checklist
- Know the consensus estimate
- Focus on consumer spending component
- Consider what GDP means for Fed policy